Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 05:55:36 ACUS02 KWNS 130555 SWODY2 SPC AC 130553 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of southeast Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and north-central/central Oklahoma on Friday. ....Southern and Central Plains... Broad upper troughing is expected to be in place over the western CONUS Friday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger-scale troughing, including one that is forecast to eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon. A cold front will be gradually moving southward across the central Plains. Low-level moisture over the region will be modest, but strong diurnal heating in tandem with ascent attendant to both the cold front and approaching shortwave is expected to overcome any capping, resulting in convective initiation. Storms are mostly likely from central NE through central KS. Large hail, including some hail greater than 2" in diameter, is possible with initial development. Damaging gusts will then become possible as the storms generate strong downdrafts. A more conditional severe risk exists farther south into OK and TX, where there is uncertainty on destabilization ahead of the dryline. Most guidance keeps much of TX and OK free of thunderstorms. Even so, there are some indications within the guidance that a more subtle shortwave may move through the southern High Plains and into OK and north TX during the late afternoon/early evening. As such, will leave slight-risk-equivalent probabilities in north-central OK for this outlook, while reducing probabilities across central/south-central OK and north-central TX. If convective initiation is realized, large hail and strong downbursts are anticipated. ....Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic... A shortwave trough will likely track northeastward from the AL/GA vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. An arcing band of warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the Carolinas early Friday, before gradually moving northward throughout the day. Modest low-level moisture will continue to advect northward in the wake of the warm-air advection band, supporting afternoon airmass destabilization ahead of this shortwave and a weak associated surface low. As a result, additional thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support a few storms capable of damaging gusts and/or hail. ...Mosier.. 04/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .