Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 12 2023 19:51:01 ACUS01 KWNS 121950 SWODY1 SPC AC 121949 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.... ....SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado are possible along parts of the Gulf Coast late tonight into Thursday morning. ....20z Update... ....Southern FL Peninsula and Keys... A few stronger storms have been noted moving onshore over the far southern FL Peninsula and Keys this afternoon. Backed low-level flow along a northward moving warm front may support a low-end risk for transient supercells and a brief tornado through the afternoon. However, uncertainty on the coverage and longevity of any severe threat remains too high to introduce severe probabilities. Please see mesoscale discussion 504 for more information. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the current outlook. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ...Lyons/Dean.. 04/12/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023/ ....Gulf Coast including southern portions MS/AL and FL Panhandle... With the mid-level portion of the cyclone centered along the southwest Louisiana coast this morning, the low-level circulation is expected to intensify and shift northward and reach coastal southeast Mississippi/far southwest Alabama vicinity by Thursday morning. However, it is noted that there are several-MB differences, even in the short term, with the progged deepening of the surface low and its northeast-peripheral strengthening wind field among model guidance (e.g. 12z NAM one of the more aggressive solutions). Even more modest-strength/slower solutions suggest that the near-coastal environment could become conducive to some severe-weather potential late tonight into Thursday, including locally damaging winds and a tornado risk. This will be as an increasingly moist air mass via a northward-shifting warm front approaches and moves inland. Mid-level winds will remain modest-strength, but strengthening low-level shear/SRH should be adequate for at least some near-coastal transient supercells, with the potential persisting into Thursday (see Day 2). $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .