Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0504
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 12 2023 19:09:02

ACUS11 KWNS 121908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121908=20
FLZ000-122115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern FL and the FL Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121908Z - 122115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across portions of
southern FL and the Keys this afternoon. The overall risk appears
too localized for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KAMX/TMIA shows a slight uptick
in convective organization over the last hour, with several
low-topped supercell structures spreading northward across southern
FL, the Keys, and near-shore waters. This activity is generally
focused along an east-west-oriented warm front, where filtered
diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints is yielding surface-based
inflow for recent storms. Given around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (per AMX
VWP data) and the surface-based inflow for ongoing shallow
supercells, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 04/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4sjoixUVjKaB9yvCg7TVXyPSYLK5Zpbb95CqXRRJaq1r4C2yZs2DC_qD3mHNL5I79gmFPQupY=
RUaG-kGsRFlDPYVOXk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   25988090 25958135 25788144 25008111 24728092 24848055
            25578006 26197995 26388009 26308039 26098052 25988090=20


=3D =3D =3D
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