Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 12 2023 16:32:29

ACUS01 KWNS 121632
SWODY1
SPC AC 121630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado are possible along
parts of the Gulf Coast late tonight into Thursday morning.

....Gulf Coast including southern portions MS/AL and FL Panhandle...
With the mid-level portion of the cyclone centered along the
southwest Louisiana coast this morning, the low-level circulation is
expected to intensify and shift northward and reach coastal
southeast Mississippi/far southwest Alabama vicinity by Thursday
morning. However, it is noted that there are several-MB differences,
even in the short term, with the progged deepening of the surface
low and its northeast-peripheral strengthening wind field among
model guidance (e.g. 12z NAM one of the more aggressive solutions).

Even more modest-strength/slower solutions suggest that the
near-coastal environment could become conducive to some
severe-weather potential late tonight into Thursday, including
locally damaging winds and a tornado risk. This will be as an
increasingly moist air mass via a northward-shifting warm front
approaches and moves inland. Mid-level winds will remain
modest-strength, but strengthening low-level shear/SRH should be
adequate for at least some near-coastal transient supercells, with
the potential persisting into Thursday (see Day 2).

...Guyer/Weinman.. 04/12/2023

$$

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