Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 11 2023 19:51:55

ACUS01 KWNS 111951
SWODY1
SPC AC 111950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the U.S. today and
tonight.

....20z Update...
No major changes have been made to the outlook. A few areas of
general thunderstorms remain possible over the Lower 48 through this
evening, but severe weather is not expected. Please see the previous
discussion for more information.

...Lyons/Dean.. 04/11/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023/

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A midlevel trough will continue slowly eastward over the Northwest
today/tonight, providing enough lift (aided by orographic effects)
to support isolated lightning flashes across the Pacific Northwest
this afternoon/evening given steepening lapse rates and adequate
buoyancy.

Farther east, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will drift
south/southeastward over the lower MS Valley vicinity into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico, becoming a closed upper low late in the
period. Several embedded lobes of ascent (evident in water-vapor
imagery) rotating around this feature, combined with filtered
diurnal heating of a partially modified gulf air mass, will favor
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over southern LA and
parts of south TX. Over southern FL and the Keys, enhanced low-level
easterlies and deep boundary-layer moisture along/north of a remnant
frontal boundary will support periodic bands of convection, with the
greater lightning potential expected over the FL Straits and
spreading northward late in the period. Marginal buoyancy and weak
deep-layer shear should generally limit convective
intensity/organization across the CONUS, though a loosely organized
storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out near the FL Keys.

$$

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