Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Apr 11 2023 17:31:22 ACUS02 KWNS 111731 SWODY2 SPC AC 111729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central High Plains, the southern and central Rockies, and the central Gulf Coast/Florida Wednesday into the overnight hours. A few storms along the Gulf Coast may produce isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two. ....Synopsis... Across the CONUS, split mid-level flow will persist through much of the forecast period as a stubborn cut off low lingers along the central Gulf Coast. To the west, a Pacific trough will dig south toward the Great Basin as a speed max moves onshore. With the cut off low remaining in place, much of the stronger polar jet will remain displaced to the north across the international border. At the surface, high pressure will remain dominant in the eastern CONUS while several surface lows consolidate over the Intermountain West. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Rockies into the central/northern Plains. A few severe storms are also possible along the Gulf Coast. ....Central Gulf Coast to the western Florida Panhandle... To the east of the cut off upper low, a weak area of surface low pressure is expected to develop over the Gulf of Mexico late D2/Wed into early D3/Thur. Some models indicate the potential for some intensification of the surface system as it approaches the coast. Inland moisture advection, and modest pressure falls near the surface low may support enough buoyancy and shear for a few organized, and possibly rotating storms. Model guidance varies considerably on the timing and positioning of the upper and surface lows near the Gulf Coast. If the low is able to move near/onshore and displace a wedge of cooler continental air overnight, a few rotating storms may move inland prior to 12z D3/Thur. With RAP soundings showing strongly backed surface winds and 0-1km SRH of 200-250 m2/s2, a risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two may evolve with the stronger storms. Portions of far southern LA, as well as coastal MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle appear to be the most likely corridor for any severe potential late in the forecast period. A small Marginal Risk area has been added along the immediate coast to cover this threat. ....Rockies on to the Central/Northern Plains... Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the deepening mid-level trough over the Great Basin/Intermountain West and onto the High Plains. While flow aloft is forecast to increase supporting moderate vertical shear, limited surface moisture should keep buoyancy relatively low. A few elevated storms are also possible over the Plains during the evening and overnight, amid strong warm-air advection from a robust low-level jet. In each case, limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ...Lyons/Dean.. 04/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .