Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 11 2023 16:45:22

AWUS01 KWNH 111645
FFGMPD
FLZ000-111940-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1244 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023

Areas affected...South Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111640Z - 111940Z

Summary...Embedded heavy showers and thunderstorms will be capable
of localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr over areas that have
recently received 2"+ amounts. Isolated instances of flash
flooding are possible.

Discussion...Areas of light to moderate rainfall have been ongoing
across much of South Florida this morning, and embedded heavy
shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to increase along
portions of coastal Miami-Dade County early this afternoon. The
mesoscale environment is characterized by precipitable water
values of 1.6-1.8 inches (at or above the 90th percentile, per MFL
sounding climatology), SB CAPE near 1000 J/kg, and deep layer (0-6
km) shear of 40-50 kts. East to northeasterly convergent low-level
flow should continue to support embedded updrafts and shower
activity with low-level moisture transport and convergence
currently maximized across southeastern portions of Miami-Dade
County. Much of this area (from Miami International Airport
southward to Homestead and Florida City) have received 2"+ of
precipitation over the past 12 hours. Given these saturated
antecedent conditions and expected localized rainfall rates of
1-2"/hr (possibly repeating with banded structures and relatively
slow movement of 10-20 kts), isolated instances of flash flooding
are possible over the next few hours.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6fgltu8VQRMKJVCPDs5I2gE8g46wWYsSDPRqo9VI5jKxaooqjFHvOobT6cd-LaM2TOoM=
BUGK_HviSAlmDIjbuq7ESJc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   25828033 25788020 25548025 25298035 25208050=20
            25298067 25608063 25768047=20

=3D =3D =3D
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