Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 11 2023 12:49:51

ACUS01 KWNS 111249
SWODY1
SPC AC 111248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the U.S. today and
tonight.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern across the CONUS is becoming more
amplified and decelerating somewhat.  A cyclone is evident in
moisture-channel imagery over the Pacific west of BC, with trough
southeastward just offshore from the Pacific Northwest and northern
CA.  The associated 500-mb low should move southeastward and reach
the WA Coast by 12Z tomorrow, preceded by a series of shortwave
troughs across the inland Northwest.  Associated cold midlevel air,
overlying marginally favorable low/middle-level theta-e, will
support isolated, episodic flashes in parts of the Northwest.

Downstream, a strong ridge has developed from northern MX across the
southern Rockies, curving eastward over the central Plains to the
Corn Belt.  To its southeast and south, a slow-moving, strongly
positively tilted trough has set up from GA to south TX, surrounded
by broadly cyclonic flow from the mid Mississippi Valley across the
southern Plains, northeastern MX, and most of the Gulf.  A closed
mid/upper low should form this evening and overnight, over the
western/central LA coastline.  This also will form a rex block in
tandem with the ridging wrapping around the central/eastern CONUS to
its north.  Areas of thunderstorms are expected in the core region
of the cyclone, predominantly over the Gulf, but also over parts of
southern LA and south TX.  Weak low-level and effective shear should
keep activity rather disorganized.  Southeast of the Gulf Coast
system, a remnant low-level frontal zone will linger across portions
of the Straits of FL, south FL and the Keys beneath difluent/
divergent upper flow.  The associated lift and rich low-level
moisture will support thunderstorm potential over that region.

...Edwards/Smith.. 04/11/2023

$$

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