Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Apr 11 2023 05:56:28 ACUS02 KWNS 110556 SWODY2 SPC AC 110555 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of Nebraska and southern South Dakota, the southern and central Rockies, and the Gulf Coast/Florida on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ....Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will likely be over the southern TX/LA vicinity early Wednesday morning, with gradual eastward/northeastward motion expected throughout the period. The surface low associated with this upper low is expected to be displaced just east of the upper-level center. This surface low will likely move onshore over the central Gulf coast early Thursday morning, but guidance varies on how far this low (and associated warm sector) will penetrate inland. Quicker progression on the low would take it further inland, perhaps resulting in some severe potential given the strength of the flow over the eastern periphery of the system. However, uncertainty regarding the speed of the deep-layer cyclone merits leaving any outlook areas to later outlooks. In any case, thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this cyclone from east/southeast TX through the central Gulf Coast and into the FL Peninsula. Upper troughing is expected to deepen considerably across the western CONUS during the period, with troughing stretched from the northern Rockies through southern CA by Thursday morning. Some isolated lightning flashes are possible over the southern and central Rockies, where strong diurnal heating, modest mid-level moisture, and increasing large-scale ascent could support a few thunderstorms. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the western CONUS troughing will contribute to a deepening lee surface trough over the central High Plains and a tightening surface pressure gradient across the southern and central Plains. Moisture return will remain limited across the Plains, owing to mostly continental trajectories along the western Gulf Coast. Even with the limited moisture return, a few thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon and evening over the northeast CO/southern NE Panhandle vicinity, near a surface low expected along the western portion of stationary boundary extending into southern MN. Afternoon storms here will be supported by strong heating, increasing mid-level moisture, and convergence along the boundary. A few elevated storms are possible during the evening and overnight, amid strong warm-air advection amid robust low-level jet. In each case, limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ...Mosier.. 04/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .