Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 11 2023 05:53:00

ACUS01 KWNS 110552
SWODY1
SPC AC 110551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly from southeast Texas
across Louisiana, with isolated activity over far southern Florida
and the Pacific Northwest. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move slowly south across TX and LA toward
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, providing cool temperatures aloft
and modest midlevel northerly flow over western TX. Meanwhile, upper
ridge will extend from AZ and NM east/northeastward across the
central Plains and to the OH Valley.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Southeast,
with a ridge extending westward into TX. Low-level easterlies will
keep the 60+ dewpoints largely offshore, with only lower 50s F
common across the southern Plains. Despite a lack of lift, cool
temperatures aloft with the upper trough and midlevel moisture may
result in a few thunderstorms mainly from southeast TX into southern
LA. Weak shear and modest CAPE values will support scattered daytime
storms, with little severe potential.

Elsewhere, a stronger upper trough will affect parts of the
Northwest with very cold temperatures aloft from WA and OR into
western MT, but very little instability is forecast.

...Jewell/Wendt.. 04/11/2023

$$

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