Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 11 2023 03:27:47

AWUS01 KWNH 110327
FFGMPD
FLZ000-110826-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0176
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1127 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110326Z - 110826Z

SUMMARY...Locally very heavy showers will continue across portions
of southeast FL over the next several hours. Some urban flash
flooding will be possible given the persistence of this shower
activity.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a couple of bands of
heavy showers impacting southeast FL with a focus on portions of
Miami-Dade and Broward County. The activity is being largely
driven by a relatively concentrated low-level moisture convergence
maxima near the coast and extending offshore with a persistent
easterly Atlantic fetch situated north of a quasi-stationary front
draped from the FL Straits eastward into the Bahamas.

PWs are on the order of 1.5 to 1.7 inches and some of the stronger
convective cells have been producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour. This is also being aided by proximity of an
instability gradient along the coast and extending offshore with
aid from the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

Over the last couple of hours, there has been some localized
training of these convective cells given alignment with the
low-level steering flow and the aforementioned convergent Atlantic
fetch.

The potential may exist for locally an additional 2 to 4 inches of
rain over the next several hours where some of these cells
persist. Somewhat drier air arriving from the northeast should
tend to cut down on the overall threat of heavier rain later in
the night, but at least in the short-term, there will be some
potential for an urban flash flood threat.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!63y3_scmtQ48aagTmOU75CdgascYlmvkciA5RO7hLGS7lYbrNTrsU6LEgpT1xZNlF-HN=
vDks9-ZOr0cxeA8bm1pGFDM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   26138009 25738015 25308033 25368058 25738055=20
            26108035=20

=3D =3D =3D
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