Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 10 2023 20:16:09

AWUS01 KWNH 102016
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-110014-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0175
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Areas affected...eastern Kansas, western Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102014Z - 110014Z

Summary...Slow-moving downpours are expected to continue through
the evening hours, resulting in a very localized and isolated
flash flood threat.

Discussion...In the wake of a very slow-moving MCS near Kansas
City, recent convective development has materialized along an
outflow boundary extending generally from near Topeka, KS to near
Clinton, MO (approx. 30 SW SZL).  The storms are in a fairly dry
environment for efficient precipitation (PW values of only around
1 inch).  Despite this, very weak flow aloft was allowing for very
slow/erratic movement of cells and enhancing local rainfall rates
into the 1-2.5 inch/hr range (per MRMS), which was approaching
local FFG thresholds.  Additionally, ascent was being aided by a
slow-moving mid-level shortwave trough just upstream, while steep
mid-level lapse rates (~7C/km) and strong insolation in the
pre-convective environment was enhancing buoyancy into the 1500+
J/kg range (SBCAPE).

Each of these factors appear to support at least an isolated flash
flood threat in the next 3-6 hours where storms persist.  It is
expected that storms will continue to focus along the
aforementioned outflow boundary which was oriented perpendicular
to light southwesterly low-level flow.  The boundary itself should
migrate slowly southward - heavily augmented by local convective
outflows.  Again, 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates should exist on an
hourly basis, allowing for localized instances of excessive runoff.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4qsUHD9g45n7EWFB2guJSwkpnZjw2Ab2dxsa2VXsYcSyVAaYHRTYighajvdDcWtaCDI6=
03ojjg2tF_5Iv4gcTHWk_Lw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39399330 38639276 37539317 37189400 37159514=20
            37649680 38029717 38609717 39189658 39319605=20
            38979505 38929449 39289391=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.