Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0501
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 10 2023 19:40:55

ACUS11 KWNS 101940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101940=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-102215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western into north central Oklahoma and
adjacent portions of southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101940Z - 102215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms posing at least some risk for severe
weather appear possible by 5-7 PM CDT.  It is not clear that a
severe weather watch is needed, but trends will continue to be
monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for ascent is rather weak, but a
lingering confluence zone near the interface of a corridor of
stronger surface heating and modest boundary-layer moisture is
becoming the focus for destabilization across parts of northwestern
Oklahoma through eastern Kansas.  While this is likely to remain
characterized by mixed-layer CAPE less than 1000 J/kg, low-level
lapse rates are becoming steep beneath seasonably cool mid-level air
around -18C.

Scattered convection is beginning to from and deepen in response to
the continuing surface heating, and model output generally indicates
that this will lead to the development of a few thunderstorms by
23-00Z.  It appears that stronger storms may gradually focus where
deep-layer shear and mid-level forcing for ascent become maximized,
near the left exit region of a digging northerly mid-level jet
streak (around 40 kt at 500 mb), roughly near and south-southwest of
the Enid vicinity.  Given the environment, some of these storms may
pose a risk for (mostly) sub-severe to marginally severe hail and
wind gusts.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 04/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-1V-Fn1zRYUlsV0h_hSCk8eNDlOOvsiLJ8WUbcR6c_Ub9c5HKfw6OyG5TPePi_Y45DdAsvCMT=
V4TwNZ5RW6cpbmEW0k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37239727 36819682 35729780 35319861 35909888 37239727=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.