Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Apr 10 2023 19:36:57 ACUS01 KWNS 101936 SWODY1 SPC AC 101935 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe hail and isolated thunderstorm gusts are expected through this evening from northwest Texas across central Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas. ....20z Update -- Southern Plains... Aside from modifications to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line based on current obs and model trends, no changes have been made to the outlook with the 20z update. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop southward near the surface trough from eastern KS into OK and northwest TX through this evening. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms given sufficient vertical shear in a modestly unstable environment. Severe potential is expected to diminish after 04z this evening. For more details on short term severe potential, reference MCD 501. ...Leitman.. 04/10/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023/ ....Northwest TX to southeast KS... Along the eastern periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge encompassing the western CONUS, a midlevel speed maximum -- embedded in northerly flow aloft -- will dive southward and gradually strengthen across the central and southern Plains into this evening. While the low-level mass response accompanying this feature will be minimal, a northeast-southwest-oriented surface trough (and accompanying wind shift) is already in place from east-central KS southwestward through west-central OK into northwest TX this morning. In response to the strengthening northerlies aloft, this feature will move slightly south-southeastward today, remaining over the central/southern Plains during the afternoon/evening hours. Along/south of the surface trough, lower/middle 50s surface dewpoints and efficient boundary-layer heating/mixing should support widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development along the surface trough/wind shift in the 19-22Z time frame -- aided by subtle ascent accompanying the approaching speed maximum. Weak south-southeasterly low-level flow veering to deep/stronger northerly flow aloft will yield long/mostly straight north-south oriented hodographs supportive of splitting supercell structures. Given a steep low/mid-level lapse rate environment and the potential for maintained semi-discrete cells/clusters, scattered large hail and severe gusts are possible with the longer-lived storms into the evening hours. Confidence in a higher concentration of severe hail (some approaching 2 inch) is highest across portions of northern and western OK and southeast KS, and a Slight Risk has been added to account for this. In addition, given enhanced surface vorticity along the wind shift, slow-moving storms developing atop the boundary from southeast/south-central KS to north-central OK could produce a landspout or two (aided by favorable 0-3 km CAPE). ....Southern FL... As the left-exit region of an upper-level jet streak overspreads deep tropospheric moisture and modest deep-layer lapse rates this afternoon, long/straight hodographs could favor a couple loosely organized storms capable of strong winds this afternoon. However, the potential for organized/long-lived storms appears too low for severe probabilities at this time. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .