Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 10 2023 08:59:18

ACUS48 KWNS 100859
SWOD48
SPC AC 100857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to forecast a vertically stacked
cyclone over the southern TX/LA border vicinity early D4/Thursday.
This cyclone is expected to devolve into an open wave and eject
northeastward on D4/Thursday. At the same time, upper troughing will
become more established over the western CONUS. Several shortwave
troughs will be embedded within this larger scale troughing,
including one that is expected to move through the Southwest on
D4/Thursday and into the southern Plains on D5/Friday. Moderate
moisture return is expected ahead of this shortwave, setting up the
potential for severe thunderstorms across the southern Plains on
D5/Friday as this shortwave and associated surface features move
eastward.

There is still uncertainty with several key features, including the
quality of the moisture return, the strength of the capping, and
afternoon/evening surface low and dryline positions. Variability
within the guidance limits the predictability of these features,
precluding the introduction of an outlook area, but an area may be
needed in later outlooks as these features become more refined.

This shortwave is expected to continue northeastward on D6/Saturday,
while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward/southeastward through
the Lower/Mid MS Valley and east/southeast TX. Thunderstorms are
likely along and ahead of this front. There will be some
displacement between the stronger shear (over the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valleys) and the better buoyancy (across east/south TX and the Lower
MS Valley), but some severe thunderstorms are still possible. The
area for potential severe thunderstorms on D6/Saturday is larger
than that on D5/Friday, which increases confidence in severe
occurrence. However, aforementioned variability within the guidance,
in particular the run-to-run variability noted within each model
suite, limits predictability of the most likely location of the
strongest storms. This merits not introducing an outlook area with
this forecast.

...Mosier.. 04/10/2023

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