Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 10 2023 05:30:16

ACUS01 KWNS 100530
SWODY1
SPC AC 100528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of
the central and southern Plains. Hail and gusty winds are the main
threats from mid afternoon into the evening hours.

....Central/Southern Plains...

Mid-level speed max is currently digging south across SD in the wake
of a northern-stream short-wave trough. This feature is forecast to
translate across NE into KS/western OK by 18z and strengthen as it
digs into northwest TX during the evening. While the surface
response will remain negligible, latest guidance suggests a weak
boundary should extend from central KS into western OK by peak
heating. This wind shift will serve as the focus for convective
development by mid afternoon.

Mid-level temperatures will remain seasonally cool through the
period as the aforementioned speed max encourages larger troughing
at low latitudes east of the southern Rockies. It appears lower 50s
surface dew points will be common across the warm sector east of the
boundary and temperatures should quickly warm into the mid 70s
along/west of the wind shift. Convective temperatures should be
breached by 20z within an environment characterized by at least 1000
J/kg MLCAPE. Current thinking is ample shear will exist for
organized rotating storms and fairly steep lapse rates will support
robust updrafts. Hail and gusty winds may accompany this activity
from mid afternoon into the evening.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 04/10/2023

$$

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