Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0500
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 09 2023 22:11:46

ACUS11 KWNS 092211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092211=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-100045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun Apr 09 2023

Areas affected...West Texas/Far Southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092211Z - 100045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will continue across parts of
West Texas and far southwest Oklahoma for several more hours this
evening. Hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible but
WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar at Frederick, Oklahoma
shows widely scattered thunderstorms ongoing from the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandle southeastward into parts of northwest Texas. The
storms are located in an airmass with weak instability. Surface
dewpoints are generally in the 50s F and MLCAPE is mostly in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range, according to the RAP. A shortwave trough is
evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Plains, which will
continue to provide enough lift for convective development into
early this evening. Although wind speeds at 500 mb are only about 30
knots, there is directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This
combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range
could be enough for hail with the stronger updrafts. A wind-damage
threat will also be present, especially if a linear structure can
organize as the cells move southeastward into northwest Texas later
this evening.

...Broyles/Thompson.. 04/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-zQgJGpJdQKyYEZf34YK94rcUx-KyXG0HSz97s5rftnQGi0ZZGUiJ97uZWcK_wCaxriQ_oCCd=
kbHFQIWvL9l-2XH-Ms$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   32509849 31989902 31829980 32250078 32680155 33170269
            33920280 34460248 34860205 35190140 35200039 34939931
            34369840 33719807 32509849=20


=3D =3D =3D
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