Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 09 2023 17:16:13

ACUS02 KWNS 091716
SWODY2
SPC AC 091714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 09 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the southern Plains as well as the Florida Peninsula. Severe
thunderstorms are not currently anticipated.

....Synopsis...

A weak shortwave trough will migrate east across the
central/southern Plains and Mid to Lower-MS Valley on Monday.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest as surface high pressure
over the eastern U.S. and over the Rockies suppresses stronger Gulf
return flow. Nevertheless, mainly 50s F (to low 60s over
central/south TX) dewpoints beneath modest midlevel lapse rates and
some diurnal heating will support thunderstorm development from
southeast KS/southwest MO into OK/TX through the period. Deep-layer
flow will remain light, but directional shear will support effective
shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. A couple of strong storms may
produce small hail or gusty winds across parts of central OK into
central TX. Weak large-scale ascent coupled with modest instability
and modest shear will likely limit longevity of any better organized
cells, and severe potential appears too low to include probabilities
at this time.

Moderate northeasterly low/midlevel flow is forecast across the FL
Peninsula on Monday. Early day thunderstorms along the east coast
will shift/develop west/southwest through the afternoon. MLCAPE to
around 1500 J/kg and modest effective shear may support some
stronger cells/clusters capable of gusty winds and small hail across
southern and central portions of the Peninsula. Warming around 700
mb and poor lapse rates noted in forecast soundings may inhibit a
low-end severe threat, precluding probabilities at this time.

...Leitman.. 04/09/2023

$$

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