Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 09 2023 07:35:40

ACUS48 KWNS 090735
SWOD48
SPC AC 090733

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Sun Apr 09 2023

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Most recent guidance continues to place an upper low over the
southeast TX coast early D4/Wednesday morning. The 00Z model suite
has trended a bit more progressive with this low on D4/Wednesday and
D5/Thursday, now suggesting that it will devolve into an open wave
and progress northeastward, reaching the Mid-South/TN Valley by
D6/Friday morning. The attendant surface low will take a similar
path, bringing the warm sector over the Southeast on D5/Thursday. If
this materializes, thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast,
with some severe potential. However, predictability remains too low
to outlook any areas.

At the same time, upper troughing will deepen across the western
CONUS. A series of shortwave troughs may move through this troughing
into the Plains, the first on D5/Thursday and the next on D6/Friday.
Moisture return will be limited ahead of the first wave, but enough
moisture may have returned for some severe potential on D6/Friday
across the southern Plains, and then again over the southern Plains
and farther east across the MS Valley on D7/Saturday. Even so,
variability within the medium-range guidance is high and the
forecast confidence is low, with predictability remaining limited at
this forecast range.

...Mosier.. 04/09/2023

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