Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 09 2023 05:30:12

ACUS01 KWNS 090530
SWODY1
SPC AC 090528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Sun Apr 09 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon into the evening.  Hail
and gusty winds are the primary threats.

....Southern High Plains...

Current satellite imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough
over western NM shifting east-southeast in line with latest model
guidance. This feature is forecast to progress into the TX South
Plains by 18z, then lose its identity over the coastal plain of TX
late in the period within a broadening low-latitude trough along the
Gulf Coast. In the absence of height falls, dominant surface high
anchored over the OH Valley/lower Great Lakes will influence
low-level trajectories across the southern Plains. It appears weak
southeasterly boundary-layer flow will be maintained across west
TX/southeast NM through the period. While LLJ will remain weak, it
appears lower 50s surface dew points, currently observed over the
Big Country, will advect into the southern High Plains by late
morning.

Current thinking is strong boundary-layer heating will be noted
across portions of eastern NM into the TX South Plains such that
convective temperatures could be breached by early afternoon.
Forecast soundings at 18z for CVS and AMA both exhibit uncapped
surface parcels. While PW values are somewhat low (on the order of
0.75 inch), profiles favor deep convection within a steep-lapse-rate
environment. Although deep-layer shear should remain modest
(surface-6-km values around 30-35kt), a few weak supercells may
develop across this region. Isolated-scattered convection will
propagate southeast with an attendant risk for gusty winds and
perhaps some hail that could exceed 1 inch; although, much of this
activity may remain below severe levels. Strengthening northwest
flow should encourage this activity to spread toward I20, between
MAF and ABI, during the evening.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 04/09/2023

$$

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