Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 08 2023 19:47:10 ACUS01 KWNS 081947 SWODY1 SPC AC 081945 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Apr 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across northern Florida through early evening; however, organized severe weather appears unlikely. ....20z Update... Minor adjustments have been made to the 10 percent general thunder line across the Southeast and in parts of the southern/central High Plains vicinity based on latest observations and forecast guidance trends. Severe storms are not expected through tonight. ...Leitman.. 04/08/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Apr 08 2023/ ....FL Panhandle through northern FL... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough over the TN Valley, preceded by 30-40-kt southwesterly 500-mb flow, will continue eastward across the Southeast today. In the low-levels, an east-west-oriented quasi-stationary surface boundary extends across northern FL into the FL Panhandle, with a weak frontal wave (currently near the western FL Panhandle) evolving eastward along the boundary. Immediately ahead of the frontal wave, a broken band of thunderstorms will continue eastward across the FL Big Bend this afternoon. While 30-40 kt of effective shear could promote an embedded strong storm or two with this activity, widespread cloud coverage amid poor deep-layer lapse rates (and related weak instability) should generally limit the risk of organized surface-based storms over land. As large-scale ascent accompanying the shortwave trough glances northern FL this afternoon, additional thunderstorm development should focus along the quasi-stationary surface boundary and east coast sea breeze. Despite filtered diurnal heating amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints, poor mid/upper-level lapse rates and marginal buoyancy should still limit the severe threat. Nevertheless, a brief/loosely organized storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out given sufficient deep-layer shear -- especially along the intersection of the east coast sea breeze and east-west-oriented surface boundary this afternoon. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .