Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 08 2023 16:48:36

ACUS02 KWNS 081648
SWODY2
SPC AC 081646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Sat Apr 08 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Texas Permian Basin into the central Plains Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Florida
Peninsula as well.

....TX/OK/KS Vicinity...

A series of weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough will migrate
across the Plains on Sunday; one over the northern Plains to the
upper Great Lakes, and another over the central/southern Plains
vicinity. At the surface, high pressure centered over the lower
Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity and encompassing much of the eastern
half of the CONUS will limit Gulf return flow. Any deeper
boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain over south TX despite
modest southerly low-level flow across the southern/central Plains.
A weak cold front/dryline is expected to be oriented from central NE
into western KS and the eastern OK/TX Panhandles early in the day.
The boundary will shift somewhat eastward through the day, before
retreating westward during the evening/overnight.

Strong heating and cooling aloft (leading to modest midlevel lapse
rates) will support weak diurnal destabilization. While
boundary-layer moisture will remain modest (generally low/mid 50s
F), increasing midlevel moisture amid weak large-scale ascent and
frontal convergence should support isolated thunderstorm development
near the surface boundary from western KS into northwest OK and
western TX. Deep-layer flow will remain generally weak through the
period, but veering with height will result in modest effective
shear. Small hail and gusty winds could accompany a stronger cell or
two. However, longevity of stronger updrafts will be limited by
overall lackluster thermodynamic and kinematic environment and
severe potential appears too limited in aerial extent/time to
include Marginal probabilities at this time.

...Leitman.. 04/08/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.