Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 08 2023 16:30:06

ACUS01 KWNS 081630
SWODY1
SPC AC 081628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Apr 08 2023

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the I-10 corridor across
northern Florida through early evening; however, organized severe
weather appears unlikely.

....FL Panhandle through northern FL...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough over the TN Valley,
preceded by 30-40-kt southwesterly 500-mb flow, will continue
eastward across the Southeast today. In the low-levels, an
east-west-oriented quasi-stationary surface boundary extends across
northern FL into the FL Panhandle, with a weak frontal wave
(currently near the western FL Panhandle) evolving eastward along
the boundary. Immediately ahead of the frontal wave, a broken band
of thunderstorms will continue eastward across the FL Big Bend this
afternoon. While 30-40 kt of effective shear could promote an
embedded strong storm or two with this activity, widespread cloud
coverage amid poor deep-layer lapse rates (and related weak
instability) should generally limit the risk of organized
surface-based storms over land.

As large-scale ascent accompanying the shortwave trough glances
northern FL this afternoon, additional thunderstorm development
should focus along the quasi-stationary surface boundary and east
coast sea breeze. Despite filtered diurnal heating amid upper
60s/lower 70s dewpoints, poor mid/upper-level lapse rates and
marginal buoyancy should still limit the severe threat.
Nevertheless, a brief/loosely organized storm or two cannot be
entirely ruled out given sufficient deep-layer shear -- especially
along the intersection of the east coast sea breeze and
east-west-oriented surface boundary this afternoon.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 04/08/2023

$$

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