Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 08 2023 06:36:23

AWUS01 KWNH 080636
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-081235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0172
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EDT Sat Apr 08 2023

Areas affected...South-Central LA through Southwest/Central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080635Z - 081235Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally repeating rounds of heavy
showers and thunderstorms may result in an isolated threat for
some flash flooding going through dawn.

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery depicts a
shortwave impulse gradually advancing east-northeast across
coastal areas of southern LA which is interacting with a
persistent frontal zone draped from the northern Gulf of Mexico
through the interior of the Southeast.

Surface observations are suggesting a wave of low pressure has
formed along the front over southeast LA to the west of New
Orleans, and this is helping to concentrate locally heavy showers
and thunderstorms from south-central LA northward through
southwest to central MS. The convection has been gradually
aligning itself along a favorable southwest to northeast axis of
low-level frontogenesis with modest elevated instability and some
relatively favorable upper-level jet dynamics.

The PWs across the region remain rather high with values of 1.5 to
1.75 inches in place and this coupled with MUCAPE values of around
500 J/kg will help to drive some convection capable of producing
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger cells.

Given some radar trends of the convection to repeat over the same
area and continue to be slow-moving in nature, it is possible that
some locally excessive rainfall totals may materialize. A few
locations going through dawn may see as much as an additional 2 to
4 inches of rain. An isolated threat for flash flooding will be
possible, with the greatest risk of runoff problems being mainly
confined to the more urbanized locations.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8QiDMQ52qxUnYb0UeVuGUCgz4AgNzC509UkX_ZZUvof4iO4NBPdR15tvVCgS6neIYP-r=
1aAfADdPvtJ5njBZ1GW9I3o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32908936 32748903 32058900 31128948 30359032=20
            30109104 30489148 31279114 32079042 32718988=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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