Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 08 2023 05:40:03

ACUS01 KWNS 080539
SWODY1
SPC AC 080538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sat Apr 08 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across northern Florida through
early evening, however the severe threat appears minimal.

....Florida...

Weak short-wave trough is currently progressing into the lower MS
Valley. This feature is forecast to advance into AL/FL Panhandle by
18z then off the Southeast Atlantic Coast during the evening. Latest
model guidance suggests a weak surface wave will approach the FL
Panhandle early, then a more pronounced surface low should evolve
off the FL Atlantic Coast in response to the short wave. This
evolution should lead to relatively weak low-level convergence
across FL, both along the east-west stationary boundary and
pre-frontal confluence zone near the east coast.

Convection will be ongoing at the start of the period across AL into
the western FL Panhandle in response to the short wave. A
significant complex of storms should propagate across northern
FL/southern GA (along/near the east-west boundary), but low-level
shear is forecast to be weak. Additionally, poor lapse rates will
lead to weak buoyancy. Current thinking is the greatest risk with
this activity will be gusty winds, and the likelihood for organized
severe thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a risk of severe
this period.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 04/08/2023

$$

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