Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 08 2023 03:07:20

AWUS01 KWNH 080307
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-080905-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0171
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1106 PM EDT Fri Apr 07 2023

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080305Z - 080905Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and efficient showers and thunderstorms may
result in an isolated threat of flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a few scattered areas
of slow-moving areas of showers and thunderstorms across portions
of south-central to southeast LA. The activity is forming near and
to the northwest of a quasi-stationary front draped over southeast
LA with aid of a modest pool of instability and upper-level jet
support overhead.

MUCAPE values of generally near 1000 J/kg are focused over the
region with PWs of about 1.75 inches. This coupled with at least a
modest level of surface moisture convergence and low-level
frontogenesis may tend to support additional areas of slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms going through the overnight hours.

Given the relatively high PW environment, and level of subtropical
moisture concentrated in the mid-levels of the vertical column as
seen in the latest CIRA-ALPW data, the convection should be rather
efficient in nature and capable of producing high rainfall rates
that could approach 2 inches/hour.

This coupled with slow cell-motions may favor at least some spotty
potential for seeing rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 5 inches
which recent runs of the HRRR have been advertising. This may
result in an isolated threat of flash flooding, and especially if
some of these cells make it into the more sensitive and urbanized
areas. This includes the greater New Orleans metropolitan area.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7kKD4-mjRoI5W0r-HYnQ5CMBs-n53bjsBwtux8s1NpIro9VFhfHyjtLFczWbFYrB8BaI=
dq6k6vc6FPXk8l1HUgxDcyA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30559046 30418963 29988939 29668971 29559087=20
            29649147 29909170 30319130=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.