Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 08 2023 00:49:06

ACUS01 KWNS 080048
SWODY1
SPC AC 080047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Fri Apr 07 2023

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts and hail remain possible across parts of the
central Gulf Coast this evening.

....01z Update...

Several weak disturbances are noted within the southern stream early
this evening. Latest satellite imagery suggests a weak short-wave
trough is ejecting across east TX, while another is shifting east
across northern Mexico. Downstream, offshore flow is noted across
the TX and LA coast while a weak boundary remains draped across
extreme southeast MS/southern AL. The majority of deep convection
should focus along/north of this boundary tonight. 00z sounding from
 LIX sampled the immediate post-frontal environment well. Poor lapse
rates, modest instability (around 900 J/kg SBCAPE), and weak
low-level shear suggest most of the convection should remain
sub-severe tonight. However, will maintain a MRGL Risk immediately
downstream to account for the possibility of robust updrafts along
the aforementioned boundary where surface temperatures remain in the
mid 70s.

...Darrow.. 04/08/2023

$$

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