Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Apr 07 2023 16:25:00 ACUS01 KWNS 071624 SWODY1 SPC AC 071623 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Fri Apr 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, large hail, and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast today. ....Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast... Downstream of a broad, southern-stream upper trough over the southwestern CONUS, a belt of enhanced southwesterly midlevel flow extends across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Morning water vapor imagery indicates an embedded, convectively augmented vorticity maximum near the upper TX coast, which will overspread the central Gulf Coast during the day today. Beneath the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, a quasi-stationary surface boundary/warm front extends from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico east-northeastward across the Gulf Coast states, becoming a cold front into the Southeast. In response to the approaching vort max/shortwave trough, a frontal wave will evolve east-northeastward along the surface boundary this afternoon, with a modest low-level mass response expected over southern LA/MS. Within a plume of broad low-level warm-air advection and deep tropospheric moisture along/south of the surface boundary, numerous showers/thunderstorms are spreading eastward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and lower MS Valley this morning. While related widespread cloud coverage will limit diurnal heating/destabilization to an extent, rich boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) and at least filtered heating farther east should support surface-based thunderstorms along/south of the boundary this afternoon into the evening. Given the enhanced midlevel southwesterlies atop veering low-level flow (35-45 kt of effective shear), a few organized clusters/line segments and transient supercells will be possible. Isolated damaging gusts, sporadic large hail, and a brief tornado will all be possible. Farther east, ample diurnal heating of a moist air mass south of the cold front over central GA into far western SC will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. While low-level flow is very weak, 35-45 kt of effective shear could favor a loosely organized storm or two capable of strong gusts and/or marginal hail. However, most of this activity will likely be undercut by southward-spreading outflow and the cold front -- precluding severe probabilities. ...Weinman/Guyer.. 04/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .