Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Apr 07 2023 06:41:27 ACUS03 KWNS 070641 SWODY3 SPC AC 070640 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Fri Apr 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Permian Basin into the central Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula as well. ....Synopsis and Discussion... A dry and stable continental airmass is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern CONUS early Sunday morning. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula, where modest low-level moisture will be in place south of a cold front that will extend across northern FL. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this front as it moves southward across the peninsula throughout the day. Surface lee troughing is expected farther west across the southern and central High Plains, as a pair of shortwave troughs drop southeastward through the region in quick succession. Southerly low-level flow is expected through the southern High Plains, but only minimal moisture return is anticipated, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even with this limited low-level moisture, the combination of strong diurnal heating with cold mid-level temperatures and modest mid-level moisture is still expected to result in air-mass destabilization. This destabilization coupled with marginal ascent (from a combination of low-level convergence and larger-scale ascent attendant to the shortwaves) should result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, from the Permian Basin across the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK into the central Plains. Wind fields will be weak, but low-level flow veering to more northwesterly/northerly aloft will still result in modest bulk shear. As a result, a few stronger storms are possible. However, uncertainty regarding the location of the storms coupled with the relatively modest environment precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ...Mosier.. 04/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .