Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 07 2023 05:50:27

ACUS01 KWNS 070550
SWODY1
SPC AC 070548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Apr 07 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states today. A few
damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible.

....Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
Flow at mid-levels will be from the southwest today across the Gulf
Coast states, as a couple subtle shortwave troughs move
northeastward across the region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
front will be located from the western Gulf of Mexico northeastward
into southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi, where
dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm today, the airmass will destabilize across
southeast Louisiana. Thunderstorms will likely develop near the
front and move east-northeastward into this unstable airmass. RAP
Forecast soundings around New Orleans by early afternoon have MLCAPE
near 1500 J/kg with 0-3 km lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km.
Although winds are forecast to be relatively weak in the low levels,
speed shear above 700 mb will create sufficient deep-layer shear for
a marginal severe threat. Storms that form along and to the south of
the front will likely be surface-based. These storms could produce
isolated wind damage and hail. The severe threat could persist into
the evening as a subtle shortwave trough approaches the central Gulf
Coast.

...Broyles/Wendt.. 04/07/2023

$$

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