Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 07 2023 01:02:25

ACUS01 KWNS 070102
SWODY1
SPC AC 070100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts and hail remain possible over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic early this evening. A few strong gusts and
hail will also be possible in parts of the western Gulf Coast.

....Mid-Atlantic...
The latest WSR-88D radar data from Wakefield, Virginia shows a line
of strong thunderstorms, oriented from southwest to northeast from
north-central North Carolina to southern Maryland. The storms are
located near a pre-frontal trough, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the
1000 to 1200 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings in southeast
Virginia early this evening show 0-6 km shear near 35 knots and
700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.0 C/km. This should be enough to
continue a wind damage and hail threat for another hour or two.
However, surface winds are veered ahead of the storms, and low-level
lapse rates have become weak. This should result in a diminished
threat as instability weakens this evening.

....Western Gulf Coast...
The latest mosaic radar across the western gulf coast states show
three relatively short line segments from the Texas Coastal Plain
into southwest Louisiana. The storms in Texas are post-frontal with
the storms in southwest Louisiana located near the front. In both
areas, the RAP is estimating MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range.
RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Houston have a near
surface inversion with strong effective shear, and 500-700 mb lapse
rates near 7.0 C/km. This could be enough for hail with the stronger
updrafts. Further to the east in southern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi, the storms will be closer to surface-based. This
suggests a marginal wind-damage threat will be possible along the
leading edge of short multicell line segments. The threat may
persist through much of the night, as a low-level jet moves
northeastward from the from the upper Texas Coast into the lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Broyles.. 04/07/2023

$$

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