Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 07 2023 00:53:33

AWUS01 KWNH 070053
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-070252-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0166
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
852 PM EDT Thu Apr 06 2023

Areas affected...southwest Louisiana, far southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070052Z - 070252Z

Summary...Mesoscale organization of a convection just south of
Lake Charles is resulting in locally extreme rates (exceeding 3-4
inches/hr).  Significant impacts are possible if this complex can
persist while drifting northward toward the I-10 corridor.

Discussion...Favorable interactions between a surface frontal zone
and strong convection over Cameron Parish has resulted in a
focused axis of very high (2-4.5 inch/hr) rainfall rates over
rural areas of the Parish over the past 1-2 hours.  The
well-organized nature of this complex can be attributed to a
continued ingest of strongly buoyant and moist, surface-based
parcels (1500 J/kg MUCAPE, 1.7 inch PW) and an embedded,
persistent mesocyclonic structure that was likely enhancing
updraft strength and associated rainfall rates.  The complex
itself was very slowly moving northeastward, which was also
contributing to the extreme rain rates and runoff/MRMS Flash
responses.

The primary concern with this complex is that these extreme
rainfall rates can persist northward toward more populated areas
along the I-10 corridor in southwestern Louisiana.  The dewpoint
at LCH was at 66F in the last hour, suggesting that the complex
may begin to struggle to continue ingesting surface-based parcels
if it ends up drifting too far northward.  Locally significant
(perhaps catastrophic) impacts are expected with this slow-moving
complex, and an additional 3-7 inches of rainfall (with hourly
rates eclipsing 3 inches/hr) are likely through 0245Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4V8ct1E4MtodjIglBEz7sGdm0yQiU6DXu6vGNAUYAmsp02Y0R17ue0FEeDI15AhDbHPk=
rcXzdXDt8EG8rCnOq_0ZZBA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30799202 30509165 29799185 29569255 29329433=20
            29449482 29939446 30339377 30709273=20

=3D =3D =3D
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