Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 06 2023 21:30:02

AWUS01 KWNH 062129
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-070328-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0164
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EDT Thu Apr 06 2023

Areas affected...central/south Texas into western Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062128Z - 070328Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible as clusters of
scattered thunderstorms continue to develop and migrate
northeastward across the region.

Discussion...A couple of robust clusters of cells have
materialized across the discussion area over the past 1-2 hours -
one across central Texas near/east of Austin/San Antonio and
another just south of Lake Charles.  The storms are being
maintained due to a broad axis of instability (1000-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE) and low-level convergence along 1) a nearly stationary
850mb front from near Laredo, TX north-northeast to near
Shreveport, LA and 2) along a surface boundary from near Lake
Charles, LA to near Hattiesburg, MS.  Storms near Lake Charles and
across southern Louisiana were more surface based, leveraging
nearly 1.8 inch PW values (per RAP analyses) and favorable flow
aloft for training, boosting rain rates above 2 inches/hr at times
despite very high FFGs (exceeding 4 inches/hr).  The flash flood
threat should be isolated at best across these areas.

An area of slightly more concern is across central/eastern Texas
through tonight.  The axis of convergence across that area is not
likely to move much, while weak impulses in southwesterly flow
aloft (parallel to the 850mb front) allow for areas of training
convection. Furthermore, areas of 5-7 inch rainfall totals have
occurred very near that axis, allowing for wet soils and efficient
potential runoff (as evidenced by <1.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds from
near Austin/San Antonio to Shreveport).  Convection materializing
in this area should have the greatest chance of flash flood
potential tonight, and models (particularly CAMs) suggest this
possibility through at least 03Z tonight.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!57TxV4aHiOcKa8oFRr3PXD4VyNcx5JO-jidUziSapPuM-ArY94FJQYd6CKRQbpuGGjgV=
huZaV14MFzI79OnroBLESgA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32859383 31779230 30399194 29509216 29239468=20
            28429739 28259898 29329934 30599836 32169572=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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