Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 06 2023 20:00:25 ACUS01 KWNS 062000 SWODY1 SPC AC 061958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ....SUMMARY... Scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail remain possible over parts of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. ....20Z Update... Generally minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Convection is gradually increasing in coverage and intensity this afternoon across western NC and southwest/south-central VA. Current expectations are for additional thunderstorms to develop along or ahead a southward-moving cold front across parts of central/northern VA into MD/DE and southern NJ. Low-level moisture remains greatest along/east of the Blue Ridge, where diurnal heating has also been maximized with generally less cloud cover compared to locations farther north/west. Even though low-level flow remains modest per recent VWPs from area radars, winds do gradually strengthen with height through mid levels. This is fostering around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear, with stronger shear present with northward extent across the Mid-Atlantic. A mix of supercells and small bowing clusters, capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, should occur through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening as convection gradually spreads eastward. No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of coastal/south TX into southern LA and MS. Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds remain possible with the stronger cores that can develop and be sustained across this region. ...Gleason.. 04/06/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023/ ....Mid Atlantic Region... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across PA/WV. This boundary will move into a warm/moist air mass by early afternoon over the Mid Atlantic region, where dewpoints the 60s and strong heating is present. A consensus of model guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing along/ahead of the front. This area lies along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft, and in corridor of forecast afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Parameters are sufficient to promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms should be most active in the 21-03z period. ....TX/LA/MS... A surface front stretches from off the TX coast into southern LA/MS. Ample moisture and some daytime heating along/south of the boundary will result in scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. By mid afternoon, sufficient diurnal heating may result in a few robust storms capable of gusty winds or hail. This activity is likely to remain rather disorganized. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .