Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0495
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 06 2023 18:01:23

ACUS11 KWNS 061801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061800=20
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-061930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023

Areas affected...portions of Virginia...into eastern Maryland and
Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 061800Z - 061930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain
of VA/NC early this afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates and
favorable shear may support organized clusters or a supercell
capable of damaging winds and hail. A weather watch is being
considered.

DISCUSSION...As of 1755 UTC, visible satellite imagery showed
initial cumulus towers deepening over the higher terrain of NC and
VA. Mostly clear skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the
low 80s F atop 60s F surface dewpoints over much of DelMarVa. The
robust heating is supporting 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC
mesoanalysis. As remaining inhibition weakens this afternoon,
thunderstorms should gradually develop over the higher terrain
before spreading east/northeastward. Area RAP soundings show
moderate vertical shear with primarily straight hodographs
overlapping with the favorable buoyancy. This would support
organized storms, including short line segments/clusters, and
perhaps an isolated splitting supercell. Afternoon mixing will
promote steep low-level lapse rates near 8 C/km which will favor
strong downdrafts and damaging gusts with mature storms. Hail will
also be possible, especially with any supercell structures in deeper
moisture farther east. Storms should develop in the next 1-2 hours
and spread east toward the Atlantic coast through this evening.

...Lyons/Hart.. 04/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9lMfuO-G9SYxvQsfYmbtCy1gSRzN0UZ_IwTPz3CAdizEny2kP6KM4nWizRvk-J-Qp8wueJKCt=
Ut5xucXhBHc4W0YNfw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   39627447 39197451 38677498 37597554 37167585 36887675
            36747751 36617815 36607989 36648054 37138030 38857847
            39087812 39437744 39767630 39837563 39767502 39627447=20


=3D =3D =3D
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