Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0494
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 06 2023 17:36:26

ACUS11 KWNS 061736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061735=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-062000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0494
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern Louisiana into southern
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061735Z - 062000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts or an instance or two of large hail
may accompany the stronger storms that can manage to organize. The
severe threat is expected to be isolated and a WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an overall increase
in coverage and intensity of thunderstorms across portions of the
Lower Mississippi Valley, with 30 dBZ echoes reaching 45 kft in the
past hour with some of the stronger cells. Modest southwesterly
mid-level flow associated with a glancing upper trough is currently
overspreading weak low-level warm-air advection, contributing to a
corridor of 50 kts of effective bulk shear. 17Z mesoanalysis depicts
hodographs of modest length and weak low-level curvature, suggesting
that pulse cellular, multicellular and perhaps briefly transient
supercellular storms are the most likely modes of convection. The
more organized, longer lived storms may support damaging gusts given
the presence of 7.5-8.5 C/km low-level lapse rates. Mid-level lapse
rates are not particularly steep, but rich low-level moisture should
contribute to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, which may compensate to support some
hail potential when also considering the 50 kts of effective bulk
shear. Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to be isolated and
a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 04/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_nbyxn-D8QerBNuESNGBfZ9xnv63oN0W2tOE_47_J6W_Pv6ZMwPiwVcHGm3I4iZwwCes24FSA=
W5Xxdr2zNjqTK_g-f4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30549330 31069187 31469089 32188939 32398889 32148849
            31368876 30708959 30059030 29829073 29749123 29719172
            29919278 30549330=20


=3D =3D =3D
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