Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 06 2023 17:27:23 ACUS02 KWNS 061727 SWODY2 SPC AC 061725 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast states. Occasional damaging winds and marginally severe hail appear possible. ....Synopsis... An upper trough over the Northeast and eastern Canada will move eastward on Friday, while upstream upper ridging shifts from the western CONUS to the northern/central Plains. Another upper trough should advance across parts of the Northwest. Cold-mid level temperatures, related weak instability, and ascent associated with this feature may support isolated lightning flashes with convection that develops Friday afternoon across parts of eastern WA/OR, western ID, and perhaps northern NV. ....Central Gulf Coast... A broad area of surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Friday morning should gradually shift eastward through the day. Rich low-level moisture will remain confined to parts of the Southeast, along/south of a cold front which is forecast to slowly sag southward through the period. Most guidance indicates that a weak mid-level perturbation will develop northeastward from coastal/southeast TX across the central Gulf Coast states through Friday evening. Even though low-level winds are expected to remain weak, enough mid/upper-level flow should be present to support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. With daytime heating, 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across parts of southeastern LA into coastal/southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. The adequate effective bulk shear, in combination with sufficient instability, may support loosely organized convection across these areas. Occasional damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest cores that can develop. But, poor mid-level lapse rates and the lack of a stronger mid-level wave should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ....Georgia... Enough low-level convergence along the southward-moving cold front may exist to foster isolated thunderstorms across parts of central GA and vicinity Friday afternoon. Although sufficient instability and deep-layer shear may be present along/south of the front for somewhat organized convection, it appears that any thunderstorms that do develop will quickly be undercut by the front and subsequently weaken. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds appears possible, have opted to not include low severe probabilities for wind at this time. ...Gleason.. 04/06/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .