Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 06 2023 08:25:22

ACUS48 KWNS 060825
SWOD48
SPC AC 060823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to suggest that ongoing amplification
within the westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific will
increasingly impact a persistent downstream North American split
flow as early as late this coming weekend.  During the early to
middle portion of next week, this may include the evolution of a
mid-level low across the northern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast
vicinity, while another evolves across and inland of the Pacific
coast into the Great Basin.

The spread among the various models, and from run to run, remains
sizable concerning these developments, and predictability appears
relatively low.  However, it appears that the lead perturbation
could contribute to modest cyclogenesis along a lingering frontal
zone across the Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Southeast.  Even if
this occurs, though, it seems probable that a preceding intrusion of
potentially cold air across much of this region will tend to
minimize associated destabilization.

The presence of this developing system will probably also preclude
appreciable moisture return to deepening surface troughing to the
lee of the Rockies.  With moistening and destabilization currently
forecast to remain quite limited with the evolving system across
California into the Great Basin, the severe weather potential is
expected to remain generally low across the U.S. through the period.

...Kerr.. 04/06/2023

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