Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 06 2023 07:11:21 AWUS01 KWNH 060711 FFGMPD TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-061300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0161 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 310 AM EDT Thu Apr 06 2023 Areas affected...Eastern TX...Northwest LA...Southeast AR...Northern MS...Far Northwest AL...Southwest TN Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 060710Z - 061300Z SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms should continue through the early morning hours. This coupled with increasingly saturated soil conditions may facilitate some flash flooding concerns. DISCUSSION...A very slow-moving cold front with multiple waves of low pressure riding northeast along it continues to foster broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms across areas of eastern TX through northwest LA, and also extending downstream through southeast AR, northern MS and into portions of southwest to middle TN. There continues to be a fair amount of instability in place along the front with MUCAPE values of as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg noted from central MS southwestward down through central LA and into southeast TX. This coupled with rather strong effective bulk shear values of as much as 40 to 60 kts has been helping to drive a fair amount of convective organization with multiple rounds of convection seen aligned in a general southwest to northeast fashion in vicinity of the front. PWs across the region are on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches, with the latest CIRA-ALPW data showing a well-defined southwest mid-level subtropical moisture fetch oriented from the eastern Pacific Ocean through Mexico and into the Lower MS Valley. This is helping to favor greater rainfall efficiency, and some of the stronger pockets of convection have been generating some 1.5"/hour rainfall rates. There will continue to be multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms going through the balance of the night and the early morning hours across areas of eastern TX and through adjacent areas of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South as the aforementioned front remains in place and waves of low pressure traverse it. The 00Z HREF guidance suggests locally an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain will be possible going through the early morning hours. Given that some locations have already seen locally 1 to 3 inches of rain over the last several hours, the additional rains will be falling on soils that are becoming increasingly saturated, and thus will be likely to result in more efficient runoff. As a result, some areas of flash flooding will continue to be possible heading through the early morning hours. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9J-RfCT5rveV4MlOJiCgL8hM-t9J7J8axfH-xK2eN5ZraPzAPlsYwuJaLztYhbmS6JQt= gXeyawaIeDu10XR5FrWwrAE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FWD...HGX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LZK...MEG... OHX...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35808722 35108688 34158839 33109056 32169241=20 31429362 30779464 30329560 30659613 31339615=20 32089549 33049377 33959188 35408889=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .