Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 06 2023 06:00:19

ACUS01 KWNS 060600
SWODY1
SPC AC 060558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening across parts of the southern Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic, as well as across south-central Texas and the Texas
Coastal Plains.

....Southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
At mid-levels, southwest flow will be in place across the eastern
U.S. today, as a cold front advances southeastward into the
Mid-Atlantic and southern Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability
by afternoon. In response to surface heating, scattered convection
is expected to initiate along and ahead of the front during the
early afternoon. As thunderstorms increase in coverage, several
multicell line segments may develop and move eastward across parts
of North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. Some of the deterministic
models also suggest that a subtle shortwave trough will move
northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic.  Lift ahead of this feature,
along with increasing low-level convergence near the front, should
aid convective development. RAP forecast soundings along the
instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE peaking near 1500 J/kg, with
0-3 km lapse rates reaching 8.0 C/km. This, combined with 35 knots
of 0-6 km shear, should be enough for isolated wind damage. Hail may
also accompany the stronger updrafts.

.....Texas...
Flow will be southwesterly at mid-levels today over the southern
Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be in place
across much of Texas. Although temperatures will be relatively cool
near the surface, forecast soundings suggest that mid-level lapse
rates will be steep across south-central Texas and the Texas Coastal
Plain. This will contribute to instability, mostly above 700 mb.
RAP forecast soundings have MUCAPE as great as 1500 J/kg around
Corpus Christi during the afternoon. This could be enough for hail
with the stronger updrafts. Thunderstorm development should continue
into the evening as a shortwave trough approaches from the
southwest. Ahead of this feature, a few marginally severe storms
could continue to form during the evening.

...Broyles/Thornton.. 04/06/2023

$$

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