Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 06 2023 00:58:20

ACUS01 KWNS 060058
SWODY1
SPC AC 060056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...

....SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat will continue this evening for a
couple more hours from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the
western Gulf Coast states.

....Western Pennsylvania/Western New York...
The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Pittsburgh shows a line of
thunderstorms, with some embedded stronger cells, located from the
eastern part of Lake Erie southward into western Pennsylvania and
then southwestward into western West Virginia. Along and to the east
of this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. In spite of
the weak instability, the WSR-88D VWP from College Station has some
speed and directional in the lowest 2 kilometer above ground level.
This combined with 50 knot of westerly flow in the mid-levels is
creating strong enough deep-layer shear for an isolated wind-damage
threat. As the line progresses eastward across western Pennsylvania
over the next few hours, a few damaging wind gusts will be possible.
The more discrete cells further to the east across south-central
Pennsylvania could also have a marginal tornado threat or potential
for small hail. The threat could continue for another hour or two
before diminishing.

....Central Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Lower Mississippi
Valley/Western Gulf Coast...
Mosaic radar imagery across the eastern and southern United States,
shows a relatively broad band of convection located from the central
Appalachians to the western Gulf Coast. The storms are generally
ahead of a front, except in southeast Texas where most of the
convection is post-frontal. Along this band of storms, instability
is generally weak. However, WSR-88D VWPs along this corridor show
strong deep-layer shear, which is associated with the southeastern
edge of a mid-level jet moving through the Upper Midwest. For this
reason, a marginal wind-damage threat will be possible for a few
more hours.

...Broyles.. 04/06/2023

$$

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