Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 06 2023 00:48:45

AWUS01 KWNH 060048
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-060647-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0160
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern TX, northern LA, southern AR,
northwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060047Z - 060647Z

Summary...Repeating thunderstorms producing moderate to heavy rain
rates (1-2"/hr) this evening may lead to isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery this evening shows a weak impulse
over southeast TX and western LA embedded within the large scale
southwesterly flow. While at the surface, low pressure and its
associated cold front have slowed, lingering from eastern Texas
through central Arkansas. This has allowed enhanced/anomalous
moisture to pool along the front, characterized by precipitable
water values in excess of 1.5", nearing 1.75" across parts of
northern LA. While earlier convection has eroded the surface based
instability, upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE exists with the
expectation over the next few hours this should maintain itself
with the best instability from portions of LA into
central/north-central MS through 06Z. The combination of the
steady/persistent upper level support and low level moisture and
instability will help fuel additional showers and thunderstorms
through the evening and into the overnight hours. Based on radar
trends and recent HRRR runs, the favored area for this is from
eastern TX, northern LA, southeast AR, and central/north-central
MS.

The latest HREF neighborhood probabilities suggest up to moderate
chances (40-60%) of 1-2" in an hour with at least a slight signal
for 6-hr QPF exceeding 3" through the early overnight hours.
Recent rainfall has led to some wet antecedent conditions,
particularly across northern LA, southern AR, and west-central MS
where the NASA SPoRT soil moisture (0-40 cm layer) soil moisture
percentiles are 70-80%. This combined with the intense rain rates
could lead to a few instances of flash flooding through the early
overnight hours.

Taylor

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5tCDLAGnypwvRC3imv6sU5yfWLVjB80VS_HY133Mna5pbw3AejhWkDL56O03-JqOMUwW=
lch6Ge70L4YZZqNLmwztG_g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34888985 34038962 31939265 31129434 31949521=20
            32899407 33999260 34779125=20

=3D =3D =3D
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