Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0491
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 22:12:49

ACUS11 KWNS 052212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052212=20
WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-060015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...Eastern KY...Eastern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052212Z - 060015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds will likely accompany storms as they spread
east this evening.

DISCUSSION...An elongated band of pre-frontal convection is
progressing steadily east across central KY and middle TN. Strong
surface heating ahead of this activity is contributing to steep
surface-3km lapse rates with values of 8-9 C/km within a strongly
sheared environment. Several organized line segments, with some
bowing, are noted within the broader zone of convection. Localized
severe winds have been observed with this activity. Forecast
soundings exhibit a relatively deep boundary layer with modest
sub-cloud RH values, and this should contribute to gusty downdrafts
as convection spreads east of current watch.

...Darrow/Thompson.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9_LGVyAgroMK4-Ka0zc3EFVk-ex6Ec2RIoRg-JBMRzJJ8pTYqxixW6GCMej4LWRxzdTujJciv=
tB42PieGiw0G40ciHs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36028525 38578372 38218257 35778414 36028525=20


=3D =3D =3D
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