Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 20:08:43

AWUS01 KWNH 052008
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-060107-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0159
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052007Z - 060107Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms will be capable of producing
intense rain rates up to 2"/hr and may lead to isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding through this evening.

Discussion...Convection continues to expand in coverage and
intensity this afternoon across portions of Louisiana and western
Mississippi, generally along and ahead of a slow moving cold front
advancing eastward through the region. Ahead of the front, a warm
and unstable air mass exists, characterized by dewpoints in the
mid 60s to near 70 F and recent mesoanalysis showing upwards of
2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE available. Recent blended TPW products
show an axis of enhanced moisture pooling ahead of the front with
values of 1.5"+. With maximum daytime heating and enough
lift/forcing associated with the front, convection continues to
expand in coverage and intensity as seen from recent IR satellite
imagery.

The convective cells should slowly propagate east/northeast over
the next few hours with some redevelopment/back-building possible
on the southern flanks of the loosely organized clusters. The most
recent HREF probabilities and recent MRMS estimated QPE shows
upwards of 1.5" hourly totals will be possible with the most
intense storms. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest the convection
should congeal into a more defined line with some slowing in the
forward motion allowing repeating rounds, particularly over
portions of far northeast Louisiana and western/central
Mississippi. This is where the latest HREF shows the greatest
neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 2-3" totals through 03Z.

The combination of intense rain rates (1-2"/hr) and potential
repeating rounds may result in a few areas of 2-3" totals through
this evening producing isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding, particularly over portions of northern Louisiana and
central Mississippi where recent NASA SPoRT soil moisture
percentiles are above normal (70-80% in the 10-40 cm layer).

Taylor

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8L6oktgrThITt6l3bxVw-Sd5NttlrPWflAmB3hyr57pFkl5BDAmyxyOXeD1CrQK1OD41=
tz7oodKRdV1IGyLGLO7nxTc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33708989 33648937 33388886 32798885 32188939=20
            31759037 31369215 30739303 30439396 30859425=20
            31239380 32189250 33399103=20

=3D =3D =3D
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