Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 19:45:14 ACUS01 KWNS 051945 SWODY1 SPC AC 051943 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are expected today from the Great Lakes to parts of east Texas and Louisiana. ....Mid-MS River Valley to the Great Lakes region... Broken convective line segments continue to migrate east/northeast from western TN into the greater OH River Valley region. Damaging winds continue to be noted with the stronger segments of the line and/or embedded cells, and broken cloud cover ahead of the line coupled with low 60s dewpoints continues to support MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Regional VWPs are also sampling 50+ flow within the lowest 1-2 km, north of the OH River, which suggests that damaging winds will remain possible with more organized segments. ....Lower MS River Valley... Further south, an uptick in convective intensity is noted as the broken line along/ahead of the cold front impinges on a more unstable air mass (MLCAPE near 2000-2500 J/kg). The threat for severe wind/hail, and perhaps a tornado, will continue through the evening hours - see MCD #488 for additional details. ...Moore/Gleason.. 04/05/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023/ ....Great Lakes into Lower MS Valley today... A long band of broken convection extends along/ahead of a cold front from southern Lower MI into parts of IN/IL/MO/AR/TX. This line will progress eastward today across much of the OH/TN Valleys. Ample low level moisture and strong winds aloft will maintain a risk of bowing structures and associated risk of damaging wind gusts across the region. A few cells along or ahead of the line could also organize into supercells, posing a risk of tornadoes. Considerable clouds, lessening midlevel lapse rates, and shorter-term convective trends are decreasing the confidence of a more widespread damaging wind event, but there is sufficient concern of re-intensification this afternoon to maintain the ENH risk and associated 30% severe wind probabilities in some areas. ....TX/LA/MS/TN/AL tonight... Several weak shortwave troughs are rotating through the base of the upper trough, resulting in increasing large scale forcing for ascent by evening over parts of east TX/LA. This will result in scattered thunderstorms that spread eastward into northern MS, west TN, and northwest AL. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong in this area, and many of the storms will be on the north side of the stalled front. Nevertheless, a few of the storms may pose a risk of large hail and gusty winds. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .