Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0488
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 19:17:51

ACUS11 KWNS 051917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051917=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-052045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...central MS into far northeast LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 051917Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Potential is increasing for a few severe thunderstorms the
remainder of the afternoon into early evening. Damaging gusts and
large hail will be the main hazards with this activity. A severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Convection across northeast LA into central MS has
steadily increased in intensity over the last hour, both along the
cold front and with cells developing ahead of the front in the warm
sector. Plenty of daytime heating has resulted in temperatures
warming into the mid 80s F with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper
60s F. A plume of modest to steep midlevel lapse rates exists across
the region, aiding in MLCAPE values increasing to 2000-2500 J/kg.
Strong deep-layer westerly winds and effective shear values greater
than 40 kt will support organized convection along the front and
with the cells developing ahead of the line. A mixed mode of
higher-based supercells and line segments will foster a threat for
damaging gusts and large hail over the next several hours, and a
severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

...Leitman/Hart.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8kVhQlYG0bMCPZDKEq4GfeYeFaoc0NjcQFBEohBdZwEEoGJ9H_CeS1w4iKbFaLEnfW8yr6j5a=
RNhacFgRIlvLvX9ZuM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32828896 32298974 31819053 31619125 31599185 31709223
            32019247 32899158 33779052 33788924 33668856 33318842
            32828896=20


=3D =3D =3D
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