Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0485
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 17:37:13

ACUS11 KWNS 051737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051736=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-051900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...southern and eastern indiana...portions of northern
Kentucky and western Ohio.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 125...127...

Valid 051736Z - 051900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 125, 127 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes
continues this afternoon. A new downstream weather watch will likely
be needed into portions of central and northern OH.

DISCUSSION...Across the lower OH Valley region, regional radar
analysis showed numerous storms along a band from central IN, south
towards northwestern KY. Over the last 60 min, echo tops increasing
in height hint at a gradual intensification of the ongoing storms.
Clearing ahead of the main band has also allowed additional
thunderstorms to develop across portions of northwestern KY and
southern IN. With sufficient buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and
effective shear of 50-60 kt, a few organized line/bowing segments
capable of damaging wind gusts are likely. Low-level flow is veered
but strong wind fields and ESRH above 200 m2/s2  may also support
some low-level updraft rotation. A couple of tornadoes will remain
possible with QLCS or transient supercells. Given the numerous storm
interactions, the probability for significant severe risk is
relatively low. However, the favorable kinematics and instability
should keep some severe risk possible through this afternoon.

Given the potential for storms to move eastward out of WW127 over
the next hour or so, a new weather watch will also be considered
downstream. A similarly favorable thermodynamics/kinematic
environment may support a risk for damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado over portions of northern and central OH this afternoon.

...Lyons.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_JS4Q81VaiHGwwITyB28lMlqKr4pkVGMTkgDiJgn_91j8xVZT8kxVPuyUp64ee5F2MnAgWWUg=
sWOso8uMUgoHMXpWss$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...
PAH...

LAT...LON   38398755 38778732 39048672 39358618 39628579 40088532
            40448504 41008480 41408459 41658432 41798381 41758326
            41738289 41718226 41758179 41828135 41718122 41408125
            40958144 40598165 39978205 39048284 38518391 38108489
            38028615 37988681 38058728 38398755=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.