Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0484
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 16:51:45

ACUS11 KWNS 051651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051651=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-051815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast MO...southern IL...western
KY...western TN...northeast AR and far northwest MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 126...

Valid 051651Z - 051815Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 126 continues.

SUMMARY...Increasing potential for damaging gusts and a couple
tornadoes is expected over the next couple hours from far southern
Illinois and western KY, southward to northeast Arkansas and
northwest Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...Convection ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front
has shown some gradual increase in intensity over the past 30
minutes or so, with several severe and tornado warned storms noted
across eastern AR. A couple of gusts to 48 and 49 kt have also been
noted with the eastern AR convection. The airmass downstream from
ongoing convection has warmed into the upper 70s to near 80 F with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F. This should continue to
contribute to further destabilization into early afternoon, with
MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg expected. Regional VWP data show some modest
curvature in the low-levels, with effective shear values greater
than 40 kt. This should continue to support some low-level rotation
within the line and tornadoes remain possible. Given deep-layer flow
in mainly parallel to the surface boundary, bowing line segments
also will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts. Expect a
general increase in severe potential across the watch area over the
next few hours.

...Leitman.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5CgLEUZw5S91XsUQvntwoEUBEjE4mdX1CfcznAOXQYtgp2r3RYB7vqueIHitZyiEzUCbQFoS0=
2eUuUIgKhvL6Ry5a9U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   36069100 36909018 37578937 37678868 37608819 37458797
            37208792 36978799 36898801 36328839 35868880 34968959
            34279014 34089070 34109113 34239160 34519185 35509130
            36069100=20


=3D =3D =3D
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