Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 16:23:14

ACUS01 KWNS 051623
SWODY1
SPC AC 051621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PARTS OF OHIO...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are
expected today from the Great Lakes to parts of east Texas and
Louisiana.

....Great Lakes into Lower MS Valley today...
A long band of broken convection extends along/ahead of a cold front
from southern Lower MI into parts of IN/IL/MO/AR/TX.  This line will
progress eastward today across much of the OH/TN Valleys.  Ample low
level moisture and strong winds aloft will maintain a risk of bowing
structures and associated risk of damaging wind gusts across the
region.  A few cells along or ahead of the line could also organize
into supercells, posing a risk of tornadoes.  Considerable clouds,
lessening midlevel lapse rates, and shorter-term convective trends
are decreasing the confidence of a more widespread damaging wind
event, but there is sufficient concern of re-intensification this
afternoon to maintain the ENH risk and associated 30% severe wind
probabilities in some areas.

....TX/LA/MS/TN/AL tonight...
Several weak shortwave troughs are rotating through the base of the
upper trough, resulting in increasing large scale forcing for ascent
by evening over parts of east TX/LA.  This will result in scattered
thunderstorms that spread eastward into northern MS, west TN, and
northwest AL.  Low-level winds will not be particularly strong in
this area, and many of the storms will be on the north side of the
stalled front.  Nevertheless, a few of the storms may pose a risk of
large hail and gusty winds.

...Hart/Lyons.. 04/05/2023

$$

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