Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0483
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 14:58:13

ACUS11 KWNS 051458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051457=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-051630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...southern lower Michigan...northern Indiana...and
northwest Ohio.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 125...

Valid 051457Z - 051630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 125 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW125. Damaging gusts are
the primary concern, along with an isolated tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...As of 1500 UTC regional radar imagery showed an
organized band of strong to severe storms ahead of the cold front
transiting across in portions of southern lower MI, and northern IN.
Ahead of the band, moist surface conditions (dewpoints in the low
60s F) were supporting weak destabilization with MUCAPE around 1000
J/kg. Strong updrafts are expected to persist as they spread east
along and ahead of the cold front. Effective shear of 50-60 kt from
SPC mesoanalysis will continue to support storm organization
primarily into into linear modes. Given the strong background wind
fields, damaging severe gusts will remain a concern. With the linear
mode and somewhat veered surface flow, the tornado threat is more
uncertain. However, very strong low-level shear (01-km SRH 300
m2/s2) will likely maintain a risk for an isolated tornado or two
with embedded supercell structures or QLCS modes through the early
afternoon. Storms will eventually spread eastward into portions of
northeastern IN and northwestern OH with a continued risk for
damaging gusts, and perhaps isolated tornadoes.

...Lyons.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5GOEZhN4cUEcCMMVqtlOXpGCrgWPKPc-TyNo1NM9spyOxS15wmaUMp4eJUfAsKg9t7-DRu51M=
8-O7vIpigYgZ38eLA0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   40958694 42308599 43048538 43418511 43608465 43718375
            43508303 43308263 43178241 43078236 42668259 42088315
            41088397 40608423 40578472 40508601 40498684 40958694=20


=3D =3D =3D
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